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According to its National Determined Contribution (NDC) of 2015, the share of green energy in the electricity mix is expected to reach 42% and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from this sector are not expected to exceed 9.2 Gt of CO 2 eq in 2030. 2 To date, Côte d'Ivoire has not made any other quantitative commitment beyond 2030.
As natural gas is the main source of electricity production in Côte d'Ivoire to date, we pay particular attention to its modeling. Its supply comes either from national gas reserves, via the West Africa Sub-Regional Gas Pipeline (WAGP), or from international gas reserves in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
This scenario aims to mimic an energy mix in 2050 similar to that of today, where gas represents roughly two-third of the total supply. As previously states, natural gas has the advantage of a well-structured and familiar decision-making process and value chain in Côte d'Ivoire.
Côte d'Ivoire is the third largest electricity market in West Africa and has historically been a net exporter of electricity with 11.8% of its total electricity generation sold to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Ghana in 2019 (ANARE-CI, 2020). 2.1.2. Future cost assumptions Fig. 2 presents the long-term cost assumption for our analysis.
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